Will You Definitely Get COVID If You Don’t Get Vaccinated?

Do You Feel Lucky?

F. Perry Wilson, MD MSCE
5 min readJun 30, 2021

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Last week, I had an interesting conversation with a friend of mine from college. Like many docs these days, I find myself doing my best to answer a lot of COVID-related questions from friends and family — ranging from straightforward stuff to edge cases that never seem to quite be covered by the CDC recommendations.

But this one led to a question that I’ve actually been stuck on for a bit — and I want to share my thinking with you.

COVID-19 Mortality risk by age group

My friend has not yet gotten vaccinated. He is not really anti-vaccine. He falls into that more common category of wait and see — nervous about some reported side-effects, in no rush to get the jab. I try to meet people where they are when it comes to this — not overly dogmatic — just trying to honestly outline the risks and benefits. Like me, he’s a forty-something guy without a high-risk medical condition. He understood that, if he were to get COVID, there’s a good chance it would be mild, a small chance it would be severe, and a very small chance it would lead to death. Fine.

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F. Perry Wilson, MD MSCE

Medicine, science, statistics. Associate Professor of Medicine and Public Health at Yale. New book “How Medicine Works and When it Doesn’t” available now.