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Will We All Get it Eventually? The Long-Term Epidemiology of COVID-19
How much curve-flattening is enough?
In the early days of the coronavirus pandemic the phrase “flatten the curve” got into the national zeitgeist.
By shutting down large aspects of society, social distancing, and other public health measures we would slow the spread of the coronavirus to avoid overwhelming our hospital system. Grim stories from Italy of triaging ventilators and patients dying in corridors made the problem that much more real.
And so far, it seems we have flattened the curve. We have not had to deny life-saving treatments because ventilators or ICU beds were not available. This was due in no small part to herculean efforts on the part of healthcare workers to expand capacity, but also to the efforts of everyday Americans who took the precautions seriously.
But one question has been sitting in the back of my mind since the talk of curve-flattening started. Does everyone get the coronavirus eventually?
It’s an important question. This is a novel virus for which none of us are likely to have any existing immunity. We are…
