Polygenic Risk Scores Might Be Bullshit

A reminder that accuracy in a group does not equal accuracy for an individual.

F. Perry Wilson, MD MSCE

--

I was really struggling to think of a good analogy to explain the glaring problem of polygenic risk scores this week. But I think I have it now. Go with me on this.

An alien spaceship parks itself, Independence Day style, above a local office building.

But unlike the aliens that gave such a hard time to Will Smith and Brent Spiner — these are benevolent, technologically superior guys. They shine a mysterious green light down on the building and then announce, maybe via telepathy, that 6% of the people in that building will have a heart attack in the next year.

They move on to the next building. “Five percent will have a heart attack in the next year”. And the next — 7%. And the next — 2%.

Let’s assume the aliens are entirely accurate. What do you do with this information?

--

--

F. Perry Wilson, MD MSCE
F. Perry Wilson, MD MSCE

Written by F. Perry Wilson, MD MSCE

Medicine, science, statistics. Associate Professor of Medicine and Public Health at Yale. New book “How Medicine Works and When it Doesn’t” available now.