How to Predict Deaths From Coronavirus

It’s worse than we thought.

Welcome to Impact Factor, your weekly dose of commentary on a new medical study. I’m Dr. F. Perry Wilson.

One of the more macabre aspects of the coronavirus epidemic are the variety of studies predicting how many individuals will die of the disease. Macabre, yes, but necessary as no other metric holds as much power to drive societal interventions.

Indeed, in the past week, we’ve seen open discussion about how many deaths may be “acceptable” in terms of an implicit economic tradeoff.

Individuals are comparing covid-19 deaths to those caused by automobile accidents, seasonal flu, and even “deaths of despair”, with some suggesting that our current economic woes should carry at least some weight when we decide how best to reduce the number of deaths.

But where do those predictions come from? Last week, Dr. Deborah Birx, response coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, noted that the…