How Many People REALLY Had COVID?

A new analysis suggests there have been fewer undocumented cases than previously thought. This is bad news.

Possibly the most maddening statistic to find during this pandemic has been one of the simplest — the number of COVID infections.

This number, whatever it is, is critical for so many reasons. It forms the denominator for the infection fatality rate — how serious is this virus, compared to all the others out there. It also tells us what proportion of the population might already have substantial immunity, which might change vaccination thresholds targeting herd immunity. It would also help us plan for the future — insofar as some individuals who were infected will likely have substantial health needs long after the pandemic subsides.

But the total number of Covid infections has been tricky to pin down, thanks largely to its stubborn ability to infect people and cause minimal — or even no symptoms. Combine that with a lack of easy access to testing early on, and an ongoing reticence towards testing since we force quarantine on people who test positive without guaranteeing their wages — and you…