A Tale of Two Coronaviruses

One a slow, brutal killer. One, a rampaging windstorm. Which is COVID-19?

It is honestly breathtaking how much we are learning, how quickly, about the novel coronavirus. I continue to be awestruck by the power of the world-wide scientific community focusing so intensely on this incredible threat.

But there is obviously a lot left to learn. There is a huge gap in our understanding about the epidemiology of the disease, and it is only now, finally, beginning to be filled.

The data we have available now are consistent with two different potential realities. Sometimes it feels like there are two coronaviruses out there — metaphorically — I’m not talking about genetic strains or anything.

One, virus with a disturbingly high death rate — on the order of one to three percent — slowly marching its way through the population — a steamroller.

The other, a virus with incredibly rapid community spread but with minimal impact on most people — save the unlucky few who have particularly bad outcomes — a windstorm.

We know that the documented, PCR-positive COVID-19 cases are just the tip of the iceberg.

We know that, as of now in the US 5.7% of people in that tip have died.